Divergence
Key Takeaways
- 01.A mismatch between price highs/lows and indicator highs/lows.
- 02.Bullish divergence: Lower price low + higher indicator low (signals bottom reversal).
- 03.Bearish divergence: Higher price high + lower indicator high (signals top reversal).
- 04.Acts as a leading indicator of trend exhaustion.
Why it matters
Divergence warns that a trend is running on empty: even though price is making new highs, the buying pressure is actually decelerating. This mismatch often occurs right before a major trend reversal, giving traders advance warning to lock in profits or set tighter stops.
When it matters
It is highly significant when it develops on daily or weekly charts in overbought/oversold territory near key support/resistance zones.
Price highs sloping upward, while the corresponding peaks of the RSI below slope downward.
Draw trendlines on both the price peaks and the RSI peaks to detect if a bearish divergence is present.
Common Mistakes
Trading divergence immediately without confirmation
Divergence is a warning, not a buy/sell trigger. A bearish divergence can persist for weeks while the price continues to rise. Wait for a breakout, candlestick reversal, or indicator crossover to confirm the trade entry.
๐ Real-World Example: A major cyclical reversal
In late 2021, a prominent cryptocurrency index peaked at $69,000, which was higher than its April peak of $64,000. However, the weekly RSI peaked at 65, which was significantly lower than its April peak of 85. This massive bearish divergence warned of fading momentum, preceding a 70% bear market.